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Android To Dominate Apple Through 2016? Unlikely..

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According to Ovum, which provides clients with independent and objective analysis to enable them to make better business and technology decisions, the global smartphone market will double in size by 2016 and Android will destroy all competition. They claim that Apple will be their closest competitor, but that Apple will be 20.5% behind Android.

Ovum principal analyst Adam Leach said, “The smartphone market will see significant growth over the next five years, once again outperforming the wider mobile phone market. We will see dramatic shifts in dominance for smartphone software platforms, with Android storming into the lead with 38% market share, compared to Apple iOS’ 17.5%, by 2016.” Windows Phone will come in at 17.2% and BlackBerry will be 16.5%.

Sorry, but that’s just ridiculous on so many levels!

First off, who the heck owns a Windows Phone?! Seriously, I don’t know ANYONE who has one, and I can’t see them overtaking BlackBerry’s market share in 5 years time. Especially if RIM’s Playbook takes off. There are so many BlackBerry addicts out there (who constantly whine about how their phone locks up almost daily, yet continue to support RIM), and the Playbook is all they’ve been talking about for the past few months.

Secondly, how does the Windows Phone plan on catching up to iOS, which has a HUGE lead in this market? Leach predicts a 0.3% difference between the two brands in 5 years. Umm, their only claim to fame is that you can take a picture while you’re skydiving in 0.2 seconds. Their interface is so bland and basic, it’s geared to people who don’t know how to use a smartphone. Sure, there’s a market out there for such a phone, but 17.2%? I think not.

Then there’s the Android vs. iOS battle. Sure, Android has been able to grab a huge market share by putting their software on a ton of phones across all the major carriers. But now you’ve got the iPhone and iPad on the two largest carriers in the country, and that’s a game changer. The reason so many people stayed away from the iPhone initially was because AT&T’s network sucks. So many of those folks went with an Android phone on Verizon. But when their contract comes up for renewal, will they go for another one? Or will they make the switch to the almighty iPhone?

Most Android users I’ve talked to aren’t 100% happy with their phones, regardless of which model they own. The problem lies with the OS. Meanwhile, have you ever heard an iPhone or iPad user complain about their device? (Not counting dropped calls) There’s a reason for that. iOS is an amazing operating system, even if it’s a PITA to develop for. It’s so effortless to use, so intuitive, so crisp and clean.

That’s what Apple is known for. It’s how they changed the Smartphone market forever.

With that said, here are my non-scientific predictions for 2016:
iOS – 30%
Android – 25%
Blackberry – 15%
All the rest – 30%

Bold prediction? Maybe, but I think back to the VHS vs. Betamax wars in the 80s. From a technical standpoint, Beta should have been the clear winner. But look at how that turned out!

What do you think?

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Rahsaan

    April 21, 2011 at 11:22 am

    The reason the iPhone has a big share of the market is because of slick hardware design from the masters of the game and fantabulous marketing. Apple has ridiculously deep pockets for that. The iPhone has such wide appeal because it’s geared towards folks “who dont know how to use a smartphone”. With iTunes for syncing media and apps to it, you literally can’t fail, except for choosing ATT as the carrier out the gate.

    Secondly, RIM is a big because of Blackberry Enterprise Server. That there is the link between Exchange(corporate email)and their mobile devices. People use and continue to support RIM because it’s what they’re most familiar with from having to use it for work. Most everybody I work with, also carry a blackberry for personal use. The friggen President has a BB fer chrissakes. He apparently hates his too, but still has to use it. RIM isn’t going anywhere.

    If Apple has shown us anything, it’s that there’s still room for someone to completely change the game up. Android is proving that. It has the google(skynet)juggernaut behind it, watching and waiting. So yes, in 5 years those numbers may shift in Android’s favor. The choices of phone/tablet hardware running Android are staggering. Apple doesn’t give you that freedom: iPod, iPhone, iPad. Simple and they’re making bajillions.

    Pardon me while I go jailbreak my iPhone.

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